Winter Heating Bills 2026–2027 : Forecasts and How to Prepare Now
Winter is approaching and with it the question every household is asking: how much will I pay for heating this year? European gas storage levels are high, TTF prices have stabilised, but remain 2 to 3 times higher than before the 2021 energy crisis. Here are the analyst forecasts and the steps you should take right now, before the cold sets in.
European gas storage: good news for 2026–2027
European natural gas reserves entered winter 2026–2027 at around 92% of capacity — comparable to 2023–2024 and well above the 2022 crisis. Europe has diversified its sources (US LNG, Norwegian gas, Algerian gas) and has significantly reduced its dependence on Russian gas.
What this means for your bill: the risk of a spectacular price spike like 2022 is low. However, a very cold winter or geopolitical tensions could still generate increases of 15 to 25%.
Price forecasts for winter 2026–2027
The analyst consensus for winter 2026–2027:
- Gas TTF: €38 to €55/MWh. High scenario (cold winter): up to €70/MWh.
- Heating oil: stable at £0.72 to £0.88/litre depending on oil prices.
- Electricity: slight fall expected thanks to renewable energy expansion.
Impact on the annual bill of an average household:
- Gas: £1,500 to £1,900/year
- Heating oil: £1,400 to £1,800/year for 1,500 litres
- Electricity: £1,200 to £1,700/year
7 things to do before November
- Programme your thermostat: 20°C when home, 16°C at night, 14°C when away → −15% on your bill.
- Get your boiler serviced before winter → +10% efficiency.
- Bleed your radiators (trapped air reduces efficiency by 10 to 15%).
- Lower your boiler flow temperature to 60–65°C → −10% consumption.
- Draught-proof doors and windows → −10 to 15%.
- Close heavy curtains at dusk → −5 to 10%.
- Install a smart thermostat if you haven’t already: paid back in 4 to 6 months.
Smart thermostat: your best protection against price rises
For a household with £2,000/year in heating costs:
- Tado (geofencing + zone control): −25% = £500/year
- Netatmo (no subscription, HomeKit/Alexa): −20% = £400/year
- Honeywell T6R (reliable, all-boiler compatible): −15% = £300/year
Our recommendations for this winter
Express delivery available — install before the first frost:
Express delivery available — install before the first frost:
FAQ
Will gas prices fall this winter?
Storage levels are high (92%) and analysts don't expect major rises. However, a very cold winter or geopolitical crisis could still generate spikes of 15 to 25%. Structural prices remain 2 to 3 times higher than 2019.
What thermostat temperature for this winter to save money?
20°C in living areas during the day, 16°C in bedrooms at night, 14°C when you're away. Every degree lower saves roughly 7% on your bill.
Should I order heating oil now or wait?
In October, heating oil prices are historically lower than in January-February. If your tank is below 30%, this is the right time to refill.
How hard is a smart thermostat to install?
Most models (Tado, Netatmo) install in 30 minutes as a direct replacement for your existing thermostat, no electrician needed.